Dive Brief:
- Global air cargo demand was up 6% year over year in October, marking the seventh month of consecutive growth, but hope of an additional peak season boost is waning, according to a Nov. 6 Xeneta report.
- Currently, there are few signs of a sudden spike in capacity pressure, a surge in rates above the levels seen across the year, or charter prices “hitting the roof,” all of which would typically signal a late peak in volumes, Chief Airfreight Officer Niall van de Wouw said.
- “The market is continuing its steady pace of growth, as we’ve been reporting since March,” van de Wouw said. “It’s strong, but it’s not a ‘peak’ season, and time is quickly running out for volumes to shift higher.”
Dive Insight:
Air cargo rates continued to be influenced by flat YoY capacity growth in October, following a 2% uptick in September, Xeneta reported. Global air cargo spot rates, which are valid for up to one month, stood at $3.11 per kilogram in October, up 29% YoY. Spot rates increased 4% month over month.
Spot rates also increased month over month across all of Xeneta’s 10 selected global corridors, with the largest spike on the Transatlantic westbound trade lane, Xeneta reported. As carriers transitioned to winter flight schedules, Europe to North America spot rates increased 10% YoY to $2.31 per kilogram. Xeneta further noted that tighter capacity on this trade lane is pushing up carrier rates being quoted to forwarders in recent tenders.
Meanwhile, on the Transpacific trade lane, artificial intelligence-related shipments continue to drive demand, with chargeable weight from Asia Pacific to North America up 15% YoY in October, per Xeneta. From Southeast Asia to North America, spot rates stood at $6.34 per kilogram, up 3% month over month. Meanwhile, rates from Northeast Asia to North America were up 4% compared to the prior month, at $6.21 per kilogram.
Looking ahead, Xeneta expects air freight rates to decline in 2027. Xeneta further reported that many shippers are not negotiating in Q4, and starting tender processes to finish in the first or second quarter of 2027.
“Forwarders can, of course, offer shippers 12-month deals but, given the market conditions, they would have to bake in so much uncertainty the price becomes uncompetitive,” van de Wouw said.
Over the last few years, capacity availability has driven the increase in rates — not demand, van de Wouw said. For instance, if the Middle East market recovers, the rebalancing of supply and demand will help lower rates.
“But things will happen. We don’t know what or where, but this is the lesson the market has learned,” van de Wouw said. “We can’t call these ‘Black Swan’ events anymore because they are too frequent. This makes contract negotiations challenging for everyone.”
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