Dive Brief:
- Ocean shippers are frontloading cargo to mitigate rising shipping costs and anticipated tariffs, according to the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associate’s Global Port Tracker.
- June import volumes are expected to increase by 14.3% year over year, indicating an earlier peak season. Higher costs from tariffs and fuel prices expected in August are leading retailers to bring in merchandise early, NRF VP of Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in the release.
- “The current import surge will likely last into July, with an early peak season that resembles the more recent pattern of raised volume rather than a sharp peak,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. Import volumes are then expected to weaken due to consumer uncertainty and increasing inflation, he said in the release.
Dive Insight:
Growing market uncertainty is spurring shipper concern, which is influencing ocean shipping patterns. Fuel costs are on the rise as the Iran war disrupts global oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s tariff-heavy trade policy is prompting supply chain uncertainty.
Transpacific bookings are showing pull-forward activity as shippers position inventory earlier to mitigate expected cost increases, C.H. Robinson Worldwide President of Global Forwarding Mike Short said in an email.
“Peak season has effectively started early, and it’s shrinking the window to secure preferred departures,” Short told Supply Chain Dive.
For example, Best Buy and Sportsman’s Warehouse have pulled forward certain cargo to alleviate tariff impacts, executives said in seperate earnings calls.
Cargo shipping timelines are also changing. What used to be a two-week booking cycle has been stretched to five, Short said.
“That’s changing how shippers plan, not just on the ocean leg, but how they align with inland networks and delivery timelines," Short said. "We expect this environment to persist through June, with some relief in July.”
Increased shipping costs are also being driven by carriers.
“Carriers, after a tough Q1, successfully used blank sailings and [General Rate Increases/Peak Season Surcharge] announcements to recover and protect price,” James Roe, director of supply chain and operations at AlixPartners, said in an email.
