Shippers continue to place orders with overseas suppliers, even as evolving trade regulations present a murky supply chain outlook, Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka said during a Feb. 17 media briefing.
“I watch purchase orders that go out three months in advance to Asia factories, and right now they're looking stable,” Seroka said. He added that in the past, he’s seen shippers cancel purchase orders during years with a “bumpy” economic output.
As a result, the port will likely experience traditional seasonality trends this year, including spring and summer fashion, back-to-school season, Halloween, and eventually the anticipated holiday season, Seroka said.
Meanwhile, February arrivals at the Port of Los Angeles are looking flat compared to the prior year, with the port also expected to see the traditional post-Lunar New Year slowdown in March, Seroka said.
This is the result of several factors, Seroka told reporters.
“First, we're comparing against elevated 2025 numbers when importers were scrambling to get cargo in ahead of tariffs,” he said. “We'll be seeing these high year-over-year comps through much of 2026.”
Additionally, inventories remain slightly higher nationwide, due to the earlier cargo surge and a more cautious approach to inventory management.
“All that to say, compared to last year's big first quarter, I project a decline of less than 10% for Q1, and I don't see the economy or cargo volume dropping off a cliff after that,” the port director said. “And even though holiday sales were softer than we would have liked, I don't see a dire situation.”
Companies have grappled with uncertainty as U.S. trade policy rapidly evolves under the Trump administration, impacting end-to-end supply chain operations. Most recently, the Supreme Court ruled Trump’s broad use of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act as a way to enact global reciprocal tariffs is illegal.
Chad Bown, Reginald Jones senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said leaders should keep tariff changes and major trade developments on their radar to navigate the year ahead.
The anticipated meeting between Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping is important to watch, Bown said, noting that the last time the two presidents got together, “there tended to be deals.”
The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement is also set to be reviewed this summer, which could further shake up cross-border supply chains.
But Bown said it is unclear what the administration's priorities are, ahead of the review.
“Do they want to keep it as is? They have suggested no, but they haven't really articulated what it is that they want to see changed about the agreement,” Bown said. “In President Trump's first term, renegotiating what was then the NAFTA — the North American Free Trade Agreement — was a huge priority.”
“So, I think watching how all of that plays out over the course of 2026 is going to be important,” Bown said.
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