Dive Brief:
- Global air cargo spot rates spiked 30% year over year in April to $3.34 per kilogram — the highest level since October 2022, according to a May 1 Xeneta report.
- Spot rates from Southeast Asia to North America were up 33% YoY to $6.46 per kilogram. Rates from Northeast Asia to North America reached $5.54 per kilogram for the week ending April 26, Xeneta reported.
- Spot rates for the month also included a more than 18% increase in long-term rates, or rates valid for over one month, per Xeneta.
Dive Insight:
The spike in air freight rates was driven by supply issues, according to Xeneta Chief Airfreight Officer Niall van de Wouw.
However, air cargo capacity is returning, signaling some freight pricing relief as it’s anticipated “market fundamentals” will tame costs, Xeneta reported. The lower rates will be welcome news for shippers who have stalled Q3 and Q4 tenders with freight forwarders in anticipation of a more normalized market, van de Wouw said.
“We need to bust the myth that if jet fuel goes up, airfreight prices (need to) go up," van de Wouw said. “Fuel costs have gone up dramatically, but rates are starting to go down in specific markets.”
The shift in Transatlantic spot prices — which dropped 17% YoY to $2.57 per kilogram from Europe to North America — is a direct example of this, van de Wouw said. He further noted that Xeneta has been advising shippers to exclude a fuel charge in their pricing mechanism, despite surcharges allegedly being negotiable.
“The divergence is instructive: air freight pricing responds to supply and demand, not costs,” Xeneta reported, noting that carriers have begun flooding the market with summer passenger capacity.
Regardless, fuel supply volatility continues to impact logistics markets as the Strait of Hormuz — a major sea passage for transporting oil — has remained blockaded since the start of the Iran war in February. Although spot fuel prices peaked in early April, the reportedly growing jet fuel shortage has yet to impact long-haul intercontinental routes at scale, van de Wouw said. And although some carriers are considering reducing flight frequencies due to fuel shortages, van de Wouw does not expect the reduction to dramatically impact air cargo.
Looking ahead, to secure needed capacity for the second half of the year at a “fair and equitable price,” van de Wouw is advising shippers to get a clearer understanding of how freight forwarders are transporting goods and to be cautious of the “feast of surcharges” from carriers looking to curb higher jet fuel prices. Indeed, several air cargo carriers have already introduced or adjusted fuel surcharges to address the cost of rising jet fuel.
Further, shippers can learn more about how forwarders are acquiring capacity to limit rising costs, van de Wouw said. Otherwise, shippers will be more vulnerable to market disruptions and a weaker starting point when negotiating potential surcharges in contracts.
“You can’t always avoid higher rates, but the more you understand how your freight forwarder moves your stuff - like whether they are doing longer-term deals or buying capacity on the short-term market - the better you’ll be able to negotiate the financial impact it will have,” van de Wouw said.
However, challenges still linger on the horizon despite signs of possible relief, including what will happen to Q3 and Q4 demand after uncertainty, inflationary pressures and spikes in fuel and production costs ease, van de Wouw said.
E-commerce growth also seems to be over as volumes from China continue to drop, per Xeneta. In March, e-commerce shipments out of China were down 9% YoY, with a four-month sustained decline.
“Overall, we do think we have seen the peak for global air freight rates, and we expect them to go down on more lanes, but, based on recent experience, there will undoubtedly be an underlying concern about what’s next in terms of trade disruption,” van de Wouw said.
