Dive Brief:
- November global air cargo volumes were up 5% year over year, defying a flat outlook for the months leading into the holiday season, according to a Dec. 5 Xeneta report.
- Despite a rebalance of supply and demand, air cargo spot rates avoided a drastic decline in November, the report said. However, such rates were down 5% YoY to $2.73 per kilogram, which was higher than the 3% drop recorded in October.
- “The disconnect suggests carriers are chasing market share at the expense of price discipline, squeezing yields in an already downbeat market,” Xeneta reported.
Dive Insight:
November’s air cargo market performance surpassed forecasts from earlier in the year, as many shippers stuck to their annual shipment cycles, according to Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer.
He added that a better grasp on U.S. tariff actions was also a factor, with levies initially expected to be in the 30% to 100% range now hovering in the low teens.
“So, while the impact is there and it is unsettling for the airfreight market, it’s not as dramatic as was feared and is not yet hitting consumer demand to a concerning level,” van de Wouw said.
However, the market is still in flux, he added. Although some shippers have opted to absorb the additional costs from tariffs instead of passing them to consumers, inventory stocks are running low. In turn, inventory replenishment may prompt greater tariff impact on air cargo volumes in 2026.
E-commerce activity, particularly out of China — the air cargo industry’s growth engine over the last two years — is also slowing down, muddying the 2026 market outlook, Xeneta reported.
“I doubt the global economic concerns will greatly impact the likes of Temu because of the ability of China’s factories to produce stuff at a very low cost for consumers willing to buy them, but the big question for the air cargo industry is whether China’s e-commerce volumes to the world can keep on growing as they have been,” van de Wouw said.
According to indicators, he added, e-commerce volumes will be challenging to maintain, especially with the market already seeing relatively flat YoY growth in the sector — something unseen in the last two years.
“After 27 straight months of near +40% year-on-year growth, China’s total cross-border e-commerce sales were flat in October, based on the latest market data from China Customs,” he said.
Meanwhile, air cargo spot rates declined across most major trade lanes in November, per Xeneta.
Rates from Southeast Asia to North America, for instance, saw double-digit declines in November, down 15% YoY to $5.16 per kilogram. Xeneta reported that this was likely due to “combination of increased carrier capacity deployed to chase nearing 50% demand growth, particularly for inbound North America, and softer volumes linked to e-commerce de minimis restrictions affecting key transit hubs in Northeast Asia.”
Meanwhile, rates from Northeast Asia to North America were down 5% YoY in November to $4.94 per kilogram, per Xeneta. Month-over-month, however, the trade lane saw a 13% gain due to Black Friday promotions.
Elsewhere, the global dynamic load factor, which measures volume and the weight of cargo flown, as well as available capacity, was flat compared to a year ago
Looking ahead, the air cargo industry is expected to see modest, single-digit gains, per van de Wouw. He noted that supply is expected to surpass demand in 2026, which will impact rates. Freight forwarders will likely aim to grab market share as a strategy to grow, which could further pressure rates in favor of shippers.
“Shippers are asking us what we think is going to happen and, interestingly, we’re also starting to see airlines coming to Xeneta to get a better understanding of shipper rates to validate what forwarders are telling them,” he said. “Right now, the consensus is the market will do well to achieve demand growth of 2-3% in 2026.”
