Dive Brief:
- An earlier Lunar New Year had a positive impact on global air cargo demand in January with a 7% year-over-year rise in volume — the strongest increase since January 2025, according to a Feb 6. Xeneta report.
- However, Asia exports so much air freight volume that it’s difficult to ascertain market signals in January because the holiday spurs much fluctuation, Chief Airfreight Officer Niall van de Wouw said in the report. Instead, global air cargo rates might be a better indicator as a weaker dollar could make a world average converted back to dollars look more firm.
- “In 2025, the festivities began on 28 January but this year, they begin on 15 February, so much of January’s strength in air cargo volumes is likely calendar-related rather than a clear indicator of improvements in underlying demand,” van de Wouw said.
Dive Insight:
Generally, air cargo spot rates saw year-over-year declines, with the global average down 1% YoY to $2.56 per kilogram in January, per Xeneta.
Spot rates from Northeast Asia to the U.S. saw a modest 3% YoY dip due to the removal of freighter capacity, but a 17% decline month over month, standing at $4.28 per kilogram. Meanwhile, spot rates from Southeast Asia to North America saw a much larger YoY drop of 12% to $4.88 per kilogram. Compared to the previous month, spot rates on the tradelane were down 16%.
Low-value and e-commerce exports from China to the U.S. continue to fall with the U.S. de minimis ban in full swing, Xeneta reported. Typically, e-commerce volumes drive 20% to 25% of total annual global air cargo volumes.
E-commerce activity from China to the U.S. dropped more than 50% for the third consecutive month in December, per Xeneta. For 2025 in total, e-commerce exports from China to the U.S. were down 28% compared to the prior year. Instead, China-based e-commerce platforms have been growing in the European market to offset the higher cost of importing goods into the U.S.
Although the Q1 air cargo outlook remains uncertain, a return of ocean shipping to the Red Sea and Suez Canal may have an impact on air freight volumes in Q2, Xeneta reported.
Some major ocean shipping carriers have been testing the waters when considering a return to Suez Canal routes after years of avoiding the waterway. Maersk made its first structural return to the Red Sea in January with its MECL service, which connects the Middle East and India with the U.S. East Coast. However, CMA CGM — which had been gradually resuming service on the route — walked back on its decision, rerouting goods back around the Cape of Good Hope.
“Even if the Red Sea were to improve further, a rapid modal shift from air back to ocean still looks unlikely in Q1 2026,” Xeneta reported. The precarious shipping lane environment could fuel demand for air cargo transport.
