Dive Brief:
- Global air cargo spot rates are softening year over year, with the pace of growth in August declining for the third consecutive month to $3.13 per kilogram, according to a Sept. 4 report from Xeneta.
- August spot rates — which are valid for up to one month — were up 24% YoY, versus 28% in July, 38% in June and a 41% peak in May, Xeneta reported. Rates were also down 3% compared to the previous month.
- “Rates are easing their way down month-on-month, and the gap to last year’s levels is narrowing, perfectly in line with what we expected, and airlines will be hoping to hold on at the current level until the busier season starts,” Xeneta Chief Airfreight Officer Niall van de Wouw said.
Dive Insight:
Shippers are looking to keep pushing rate levels down, van de Wouw said, as the higher YoY costs have a “big effect on budgets.”
“But we are not picking up signals on a big uptick in demand in the coming months, and we think air freight rates will go down further, just not as quickly as shippers want to see,” van de Wouw said. “It remains a seller’s market.”
Meanwhile, shippers are buying more short-term capacity to see whether the month-over-month downward trend in rates continues, providing some financial relief, Xeneta reported. However, as demand growth — up 6% YoY in August — continues to outpace supply and growing jet fuel prices in the past few weeks, the “descent is being taken in small steps.”
Although jet fuel costs pushed the global spot rate, supply and demand influenced each air cargo corridor, Xeneta reported.
On the Transpacific trade lane, for instance, artificial intelligence-related shipments continue to be a market driver. In turn, spot rates from Northeast and Southeast Asia to North America were 36% and 34% higher than late-February levels, respectively, Xeneta reported.
Meanwhile, on the Transatlantic corridor, available summer belly capacity on passenger aircraft kept Europe to North America spot rates down 25% below late-February levels, per Xeneta. However, rates firmed up 2% month over month in August.
The global air cargo market growth forecast remains on course for 4% in 2026 — better than what was initially predicted at the end of 2025.
“The market has been performing at a relatively stable level for several months,” van de Wouw said. “Yes, of course, shippers want to pay less for capacity, but versus some of the major disruptions we have seen, a period of relative calm should be celebrated, and the resilience of air freight appreciated.”
